Poland corona tracker2/3/2024 ![]() In this example, we also see a 48.7% chance (red dot ⬤) that someone has COVID-19 at an event with 275 attendees if 800,000 cases are circulating in the US. We give you exact values for a few preset scenarios in the blue boxes. The grey region indicates scenarios with a less than 1% chance that someone with COVID-19 is present. For example, all scenarios between the orange and red lines involve a 10-50% risk that someone with COVID-19 is present. The diagonal lines divide the chart into risk levels. Please note that our axes are given on a logarithmic scale, so moving up by one tick means multiplying that variable by ten. Our tool generates figures that look like this. Cases may be under-reported due to testing shortages, asymptomatic “silent spreaders,” and reporting lags. Based on seroprevalence data, we suspect that in many parts of the US this is around 10:1 (i.e., ten total cases for every one reported), but this rate may vary by location, and we also include a 5:1 ratio on the main page. We correct for under-reporting by multiplying by an ascertainment bias. The choice of a reduced duration is consistent with CDC advice on the duration of typical infectous periods (though we recognize that individuals may shed longer). ![]() Note that real-time risk assessments prior to August 14th used a fourteen day window. We define circulating cases (people who are currently infectious) as cases reported in the past ten days. This is not the same as the risk of any person being exposed or infected with COVID-19 at the event ![]() Our risk calculations tell you only how likely it is that at least one person at any event of a given size is infectious. The COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning tool can be used to explore the risk that at least one person at an event of a certain size is currently infected with COVID-19, given a certain number of circulating infections in the specified region. As many parts of the United States begin to lift shelter-in-place, it’s crucial for us to be able to estimate the risks involved with resuming non-essential activities, particularly those involving large crowds.
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